Paper
Progressive Futures

Don’t Forget The Middle

3rd July 2017

How can Labour win a decisive majority?

Authors
Charlie Cadywould
Author

This paper argues that Labour can win the next general election whenever it comes. However, to secure a decisive parliamentary majority that will sustain a Labour government in office for at least two terms, the Labour party will have to significantly expand its electoral support. Our analysis, based on an exclusive public opinion survey by Populus, indicates there are two political and electoral strategies available to Labour. The first strategy is termed the ‘Bernie Sanders’ approach of continuing to expand Labour’s vote among the professional middle-class; economically precarious younger voters; and the poorest groups on the very lowest incomes. These voters comprised the core of the 2017 Corbyn coalition.

The alternative approach we have labelled the ‘Clem Attlee’ strategy: this approach entails building support for Labour in all social grades and classes, and across the nation. The Attlee strategy means the party has to gain support among the lower and middle income voters who tend to populate ‘Communitarian Britain’, and who are less convinced about Labour’s programme and policy agenda. This voter group is defined by their struggle to ‘make ends meet’: they live on low to middle incomes and make just enough to get by through careful management of their household budget. The 64 parliamentary seats that Labour has to win next time to secure an outright majority are disproportionately populated by these voters, in the C2 social grades, who tend to earn approximately £21,000-34,000 a year. The aim should be not just to sneak past the winning post with ‘one more heave’, but to achieve a significant mandate through which Labour can transform the country for the benefit of the many not the few.

Photo credit: Marso / Shutterstock.com 

Authors